| Monday, 5 August 2019 |
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9 am - 5 pm
|
Opening
- Namibia Statistical Agency
- Population Division, DESA
Session 1. Introduction
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
1.1 Why do we need population projections?
1.2 Three methods for population projections
1.3 The basic accounting identity of demography
1.4 The Lexis diagram
1.5 The cohort component projection method
1.6 Training exercise: Lexis diagrams
1.7 How accurate are population projections?
Session 2. Establishing the starting population
- Yumiko Kamiya, Population Division, DESA
2.1 Detecting anomalies in the age/sex distribution of the population
2.2 Age pyramids
2.3 Consistency tests: age ratios, sex ratios
2.4 Observing cohorts in successive censuses
2.5 Adjusting population counts when establishing the starting population
2.6 Transfer the population to midyear
2.7 Training exercise: Preparing the starting population
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| Tuesday, 6 August 2019 |
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9 am - 5 pm
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Session 3. Mortality component
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
3.1 Data sources and methods
3.2 Infant and child mortality
3.3 Adult mortality
3.4 The life table
3.5 The model life table
3.6 A note on HIV/AIDS mortality
3.7 Training exercise: Constructing a life table
3.8 Projection of future mortality trends: levels and patterns
3.9 Training exercise: Mortality assumptions for Namibia
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| Wednesday, 7 August |
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9 am - 5 pm
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Session 4. Fertility component
- Yumiko Kamiya, Population Division, DESA
4.1 Data sources
4.2 Measures of fertility
4.3 Cohort vs. period fertility
4.4 Method of analysis
4.5 Training exercise: Estimating fertility in the starting population
4.6 The fertility transition
4.7 Ultimate fertility levels and transition to ultimate levels
4.8 The changing age pattern of fertility
4.9 Training exercise: Fertility assumptions for Namibia
Session 5. Migration component
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
5.1 Data sources
5.2 Analysis of past migration trends: levels and age patterns
5.3 Modeling the age pattern of migration: family vs labor migration.
5.4 Projection of future migration trends
5.5 Training exercise: Migration assumptions for Namibia
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| Thursday, 8 August 2019 |
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9 am - 5 pm
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Session 6. National population projections
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
6.1 The components of the cohort component projection method
6.2 Detailed procedures for making population projections using the DAPPS software
6.3 Examining graphs and tables in DAPPS
6.4 Training exercise: A population projection for Namibia
6.5 How to design integrated scenarios
6.6 Training exercise: Integrated scenarios for Namibia
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| Friday, 9 August 2019 |
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9 am - 5 pm
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Session 7. Subnational population projections
- Tim Miller, Global Adviser on Population and Development, Population Division, DESA
7.1 Subnational components
7.2 Interregional migration
7.3 Insuring consistency with national projections
7.4 The Feeney method
7.5 Iterative proportional fitting
7.6 Detailed procedures for making subnational projections using software
7.7 Training exercise: Subnational population projections for Namibia
Session 8. Population projections: presentation and use
- Yumiko Kamiya, Population Division, DESA
8.1 How to present population data
8.2 Quantifying projection uncertainty
8.3 Using population projections for development planning
Closing
- Namibian Statistics Agency
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